Q: The manufacturing industry is in a downturn, and 40% of aluminum production capacity is losing mo
A: In the past year, the commodity market continued to be sluggish. This is good news for steel companies, but it is still unable to withstand the sharp drop in steel prices.
A: In the past year, the commodity market continued to be sluggish. The domestic industrial metal and ferrous metal companies have also had a hard time. There have been many large losses in the industry.
According to the data, according to the Shenwan industry classification, as of yesterday, a total of 29 listed companies in the industrial metal industry announced their performance forecasts. Among them, companies with pre-reduced performance and pre-loss losses accounted for half of the company, while companies with large pre-loss losses were mainly concentrated in the aluminum industry. The amount is worth several hundred million yuan.
Among them, Lufeng environmental protection loss of 268 million yuan, Yun Aluminum shares pre-loss of 400 million yuan to 450 million yuan, Xinjiang Zhonghe pre-loss of 530 million yuan to 570 million yuan. The aluminum industry's pre-deficit amount is as high as 16.3 billion yuan, becoming a new generation of "huge loss king."
In the steel industry, Shandong Iron and Steel had a pre-loss of 1.35 billion yuan, Linggang had a loss of 690 million yuan, and Songshan Songshan had a loss of 1.1 billion yuan.
Global economic downturn, industrial product overcapacity has not changed
The most important factor causing the downturn in the industrial metal and ferrous metals industry is clearly the sluggish demand caused by the current global economic downturn, while the industry supply has not declined correspondingly. The shadow of overcapacity continues to hang over these industries.
The reason for the huge losses given by Chinalco, which currently dominates the huge loss list, includes that the average price of electrolytic aluminum has fallen more than the cost reduction; Lufeng Environmental said that due to the impact of international and domestic macroeconomic conditions, the company’s product sales revenue has declined, and the company’s products The gross profit margin fell, the company's product structure adjustment and production capacity did not reach the expected level; Yun Aluminum shares said that due to factors such as the slowdown in international and domestic macroeconomic growth, aluminum prices have fallen sharply, and the company's leading product costs have decreased, but still Can not offset the impact of price declines and lead to losses.
Deutsche Bank's latest research report pointed out that 40% of the aluminum production capacity is currently losing money. Although the aluminum price rebounded, the new production capacity increased with the price recovery.
Steel companies face the same dilemma. Iron ore, one of the main raw materials, has plunged sharply since 2014. This is good news for steel companies, but it is still unable to withstand the sharp drop in steel prices. In fact, the demand for the steel industry has declined and profits have fallen, which is also counterproductive to the iron ore industry.
Shandong Iron & Steel, which once lost losses in 2013, fell into losses again last year. The company said that in 2014, the market contradiction caused by oversupply of domestic steel products further intensified, steel consumption continued to slump, and steel market prices fell sharply, resulting in the company's steel sales revenue and gross profit year-on-year. Both fell.
Songshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. just took off the hat last year, but it is once again in trouble. However, the estimated loss last year was narrower than that in 2011 and 2012. It pointed out that the main reason for the company’s loss was the continued sluggish steel consumption, and the steel sales price dropped sharply year-on-year. The gross profit of the company's steel sales decreased significantly year-on-year.
High capital cost, corporate financial expenses increase, erosion of profits
In addition to being affected by the industry's ecology, another huge pressure on aluminum companies and steel companies is the cost of capital. The high asset-liability ratio is a common problem in the industry.
The fixed-income plan disclosed by Linggang at the beginning of this month is intended to raise 2 billion yuan, all of which are used to repay bank loans. The company said that due to the recent real estate market regulation, the domestic steel market situation continues to be sluggish, and the steel industry's asset-liability level is generally lower. high. After the completion of the private placement, the company's asset-liability ratio will drop from 74.87% to 60.65%, which will be lower than the industry average of 65.53%. The company's ability to withstand financial risks will be further enhanced. At the same time, fund-raising will also save the company 1.35 per year. The financial expenses of 100 million yuan have a positive effect on performance.
When pointing out the reasons for loss, Lufeng Environmental also said that due to the impact of the domestic financial situation, the cost of capital has increased significantly. Songshan Songshan also mentioned that financial expenses have risen sharply year-on-year due to the significant year-on-year increase in the financing cost ratio and the depreciation of the RMB.
However, the management has taken many measures to reduce market interest rates in the past six months, including restructuring, interest rate cuts, and structural currency instruments such as SLF and open market operations. The market is expected to have more loose monetary actions this year. Will benefit enterprise financing.
In addition, the sharp drop in iron ore prices seems to have not significantly reduced the cost of steel companies, but has adversely affected some companies that bought iron ore at a high price. The staff of Songshan, Songshan, once told the media that iron ore prices have fallen all the way since the first half of last year, and the company’s iron ore stocks are relatively high due to the relatively high iron ore stocks in the previous period. . In theory, these inventories may also need to be accrued for falling prices, which will also affect corporate profits.